Spain are 23/20 to beat Italy in 90 minutes as the two heavyweights battle for a place in the Euro 2016 quarter-finals tonight.
La Roja slipped to second place in Group D following their defeat to Croatia and a repeat of the 2012 final is the result of them dropping into the more difficult half of the draw.
Spain are now 6/1 to retain their title but coach Vicente del Bosque insists there is no reason to make major changes.
"We lost our World Cup opener against Switzerland (in 2010) but we hardly changed anything afterwards,” he said. "We played with the same players and in the same way, because it was the way we'd played that had got us there in the first place, and we weren't going to rip up our plans because of one defeat to Switzerland. So we kept going and we intend to do that this time round."
Spain are unbeaten in their last five matches with Italy and also ousted them at Euro 2008, with victory on penalties in the quarter-finals. Their last meeting saw them draw 1-1 in a friendly in Udine in March and they will also face each other again in World Cup qualifying in October.
Another tight encounter is expected again and the match is 39/20 to go to extra time, with Spain 11/1 to win in extra time and 17/2 to get through on penalties.
Italy, beaten by the Republic of Ireland in their last pool match, are without midfielder Antonio Candreva because of a thigh injury while 10 of their squad are only one booking away from a suspension.
Alessandro Florenzi is expected to take over from Candreva on the right and, unlike Del Bosque, coach Antonio Conte could make some tactical changes with reports suggesting he may switch from 3-5-2 to 3-4-3.
Italy are 5/3 to get through and 7/2 for victory in 90 minutes. They were not hugely fancied coming into the tournament but their 2-0 win over highly-rated Belgium in their first game changed perceptions and they are now 19/1 to go all the way – odds which will reduce dramatically if they get past Spain.