This one is done and dusted.. So much for our hopes for a long, drawn out suspenseful series after a dismal playoffs up until this point.
Let´s not let recent history make a dummy out of us... The Warriors will not give up this 3 game lead. Let´s skip any predictions on who will win Game 4 or by how many points because it doesn't make sense. Nothing Golden state has done this post season has made sense. A record 15 playoff games in a row going on 16 is an astronomical accomplishment that we may not see again until the next Haleys comet. And all signs are pointing to the Warriors wrapping things up as quickly as possible.
Instead let's focus on something more logical, more sensible. Points. And points have been plentiful for both teams this playoffs... Game 1 and its historic over under of 226.5 was perhaps a booby trap set by odds makers to bait bettors into believing this series would be determined by defense. Game 1 went under, way under. But let us not be fooled by the long lay over or the rusty rhythm brought into the opening game of the NBA finals. These two teams make score keepers earn their paycheck and ice their knuckles after each contest.
Friday´s Game 1 was the first time Cleveland was stifled under 100 points this entire playoffs. And although they returned to the land of triple digits in Game 1 and 2, Golden State´s stingy defense has contained the Cavs offense both at home and on the road.
The Cavs have scored 113 points in each of the last two games, a few points under their playoff average of 116 coming into the finals, but enough to cover the last 2 over unders by a comfortable margin. Especially when you take into account the absurd numbers Kevin Durant and company have been posting not only this finals, but all playoffs. They have looked like Usain Bolt in the 100 meter. Sure Cleveland will stick around for a while, but in the end no one can keep up with the high flying, quick trigger offense of Golden State.
The first half of each of the last 2 games have been vital for those who took the over. In game 2 the halftime total was 131, and in Game 3 there were 128 points scored in the first 2 quarters. I think LeBron comes out like the monster he has been all playoffs and sets the tone for Cleveland like he did in Game 3. Golden State hasn´t had any trouble scoring at any point this post season. Expect both teams to come out hot in the first half. I think things will tighten up in the second act, but not enough to scare me away. I´m taking the over 228.5